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鼻咽癌患者放射治疗后并发咽鼓管功能障碍的影响因素分析及预测模型构建
Analysis of influencing factors and construction of prediction model for eustachian tube dysfunction in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy

微创医学 页码:302-307

作者机构:柳州市人民医院肿瘤科二病区,广西柳州市 545001

DOI:10.11864/j.issn.1673.2025.03.10

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目的 探讨鼻咽癌患者放射治疗(简称“放疗”)后发生咽鼓管功能障碍(ETD)的影响因素,并构建预测模型。方法 选取172例鼻咽癌患者作为研究对象,根据放疗后是否发生ETD将患者分为ETD组(n=55)和非ETD组(n=117),构建Logistic回归和决策树预测模型,采用受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线下面积比较两种模型预测鼻咽癌患者放疗后并发ETD的效果。结果 Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、T分期、放疗前血清白蛋白水平、颈部放疗总剂量、同期化疗是鼻咽癌患者放疗后发生ETD的影响因素(P<0.05)。决策树模型结果显示,颈部放疗总剂量、T分期、同期化疗是鼻咽癌患者放疗后发生ETD的影响因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析结果显示,Logistic回归模型与决策树模型预测效能比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论 T分期、同期化疗、颈部放疗总剂量是鼻咽癌患者放疗后发生ETD的影响因素。Logistic回归模型和决策树模型均可较好地预测鼻咽癌患者放疗后发生ETD的风险,临床上可将两种模型结合应用。

Objective To explore the influencing factors for the occurrence of eustachian tube dysfunction (ETD) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy, and to construct a prediction model. Methods A total of 172 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were enrolled as study subjects. Based on whether ETD occurred after radiotherapy, they were divided into an ETD group (n=55) and a non-ETD group (n=117). Logistic regression and decision tree prediction models were then constructed, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to compare their predictive effectiveness for ETD in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy. Results The results of Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, T stage, pre-radiotherapy serum albumin level, total neck radiation dose, and concurrent chemotherapy were influencing factors for post-radiotherapy ETD in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (P<0.05). Meanwhile, the decision tree model identified total neck radiation dose, T stage, and concurrent chemotherapy as influencing factors for the occurrence of ETD in these patients after radiotherapy (P<0.05). The results of ROC curve analysis showed that no statistically significant difference was found in the predictive efficacy between the Logistic regression model and the decision tree model (P>0.05). Conclusion T stage, concurrent chemotherapy and total neck radiation dose are influencing factors for the development of ETD in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy. Both the Logistic regression model and the decision tree model can effectively predict the risk of post-radiotherapy ETD in these patients , and these two models can be applied in combination clinically.

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